WINTER FORECAST 2001-2002.

Generally very close to average temperatures, or slightly above.
Becoming increasingly unsettled in December, but there after a continued
increase in blocking patterns through to the end of February.

CET % Chance
Difference from average
Approximately.
Very Mild >3C 5
Mild >2C 10
Rather Mild >1C 20
Average >0.7 to <0.7C 45
Rather Cold <1.0C 15
Cold <2C 5
Very cold <3C 0
Severe <4C 0

However, most winters used in the data had at least one month with an
average well below the normal, this winter it looks most likely to be
February , with further rather short spells likely late December and
mid-January
This is issued with only moderate confidence - please see methodology
below.
An up date will occur if necessary at the beginning of January.

METHODOLOGY
Cycles after Mason 1976, mainly 23 and 76 20% result rather cold.
Similarities from CETs and Ewp data 20 % result average temperatures
with, mild January.
Similarities/dissimilarities in pressure and contour pattern for the
preceding autumn; these showed the increasing blocking over the period
as indicated in the forecast. 25%, and also a tendency to rather mild
winter.
H H Lambs work 10% (Mainly for timing).
November data for 2001 30%, this was a real let down as dry Novembers
with about average temperatures are frequently followed by mild even
very mild winters, cold wet ones by cold winters. Personal research done
in 1977.

Despite rather gloomy figures the winter should not be without interest
and the increased blocking indicates probably means no prolonged periods
of zonality. Unfortunately it does indicate the possibility for an
ananticyclone near 45-50N for quite long periods.

Regards to all
Paul.
--
"Wisest are they that know they do not know." Socrates

A COL member. Site 25 miles on a bearing 240deg from the Wash.
Height 408FT amsl. 52.80'N 00.75'W. irc 'PaulB'

Paul Bartlett
(01572) 813655